On the horizon looms 5G — the new standard of mobile communication, the next stage of evolution after 3G and LTE. With it in our cities will drive the drones, and the Internet will permeate every kettle. And everything will be much faster — 5G shakes twenty movies in that time, how much one spends on LTE. A happy future, but not for Russia. Due to problems with frequencies in our country will be extremely difficult to hold 5G. Tell what it is.
What’s the matter?
First a little theory. Starting deployment of 5G will happen in the range of 2-6 GHz. This is the most common area (there is, for example, partially functional LTE). It will allow us to develop the Internet of things and simple user needs: for example, faster to load video. However, 2-6 GHz will not provide important pieces 5G — drones, holographic communication, and the like joy from «blade Runner».
For this you need to act within the range above 6 GHz — for example, to include a range of 24 and 28 GHz. The nuance is that the higher the frequency, the lower coverage and weaker signal, — it is easy to knock down buildings, trees and even hand. That all worked, you have to put towers almost every hundred meters.
It is expensive, so operators while focusing on low-frequency 5G, having begun carving zone 2-6 GHz. It so happened that the best range is 3.3-3.8 GHz. It will deploy networks in the European Union, South Korea and Australia. In addition, between 3.3 and 3.6 GHz will be located the first two Chinese mobile operator, and the frequency of the 3.6-4.2 GHz will master Japan.
In Russia, the range 3.3-3.8 GHz operators will almost certainly not get it. It is reserved for satellite communications for the military. The final decision is still pending. Vladimir Putin, however, agreed that frequency is not necessary to give: national security is more important. Therefore, 5G of the Russian Federation will deploy, apparently, 4.4-4.9 GHz.
Besides us, similar numbers will be used by Japan. A similar range will be the Chinese operator China Mobile — it’s got a 4.8-5 GHz. But Russia is the only country that, first, this range starts, and secondly, has in the Arsenal only. Communication future we pave our own way.
There is a belief that the 4.4-4.9 GHz will lead to three problems. First: the new standard will come for a couple of years later. Second: cellular will be more expensive than could. And third — not the fact that the smartphone caught 5G abroad. Is that so?
To wait or not?
The operators say the same: «atypical» frequency move the country from 5G for a few years. Agree with that assessment and parastatal organization «Digital economy» — according to its experts, the exotic range will lead to «lagging infrastructure».
Why? 5G is not taken out of thin air, it requires equipment. And it is assumed that for the 4.4-4.9 GHz bulk equipment. In fact there is no demand formally such frequencies no masters but us. Russia will have to make an individual order and to wait to develop the necessary glands. And a lot of time. Specially for 4PDA, comments the situation Yaroslav Dubovikov, Executive Director of «United telecommunications Corporation»:
The world has launched a network in the range of 3.4 to 3.8. There are lots of ready-to-use devices, the number of subscribers in the millions. The proposed Russian strategic range of 4.4-4.9 devices at all. Not even the chips on which the devices are to be created. Global demand for this range no.
However, it is not so simple. Telecommunications giants like Ericsson and Nokia do not have plans to create systems for Russian frequency. However, they may be with Huawei is not the last player in the market. We remind you that China also has occupied a specific range for 4.8-4.9 GHz. These frequencies will depart China Mobile, the largest operator in China with nearly 900 million subscribers.
It Huawei will supply him the system operating at 4.8-5 GHz. Assume that the equipment is suitable for the Russian reality, in spite of the differences in range. In conversation with 4PDA says Alexey Shalaginov, analyst TAdviser:
The fact that each country is allocated different frequencies under 5G, but there may be similarities and overlap. Technically quite possible to make a universal spacecraft, in national versions, which in the plant will involve the same or other frequency bands.
But here the question arises. When China Mobile will start to deploy 5G network? It is known that not once — the first launches of China will take by other operators to the traditional three gigahertz. But how long will be the delay? One, two, three? For the Russian Federation is critically important. What if China Mobile is planning to break into the game five years from now? Then we will have to wait five years until Huawei will be equipped with Chinese equipment, but at the same time sell it and Russian operators.
Despite a strong ally in the face of Huawei, 5G cherished almost certainly comes to us with a delay. And, most likely, will cost significantly more than they could.
To pay or not?
Work on unusual frequencies, as experts say, costing a pretty penny. This is evidenced, for example, Dmitry Konarev, chief expert on wireless technologies of Huawei in Russia. «Compared to 3.5 GHz the cost of deployment equal in quality of the segment proposed by the Ministry of communications range will be at least one and a half times higher», — said the expert in an interview to «Kommersant». Moreover, according to the Deputy Prime Minister Maxim Akimov, ultimately spending will affect the normal subscribers: «If we keep a narrow range, is very specific on which very little work that is done in the world, then it will be paid by the consumer in the end».
Why 5G we will pay in gold? At least will need more equipment — coverage four gigahertz less than three. To embrace at least Moscow will need to build up its towers. But the main reason another was the lack of manufacturers.
Yes, Huawei will design equipment for China Mobile is comparable to our range. But when? If the system made for the operator of the PRC, directly operating on our frequencies? Or will have to further adjust? Or pay Chinese technogiant to the plant immediately laid a wide range?
And if Russia does not want to wait until the turn China Mobile? Then will have to make an exclusive order in China — and space is money.
To pay them will be the operators — the government is not particularly eager to sponsor the construction of infrastructure. Of course, operators also want to offset the costs and raise prices for mobile communications. «Maybe I will. It is not excluded that some of the costs will take the state. But it still will be borne by the final consumer, a tax payer», — says Yaroslav Dubovikov.
But there are other opinions. Alexey Shalaginov, analyst TAdviser, recalls — technically difficult to make a universal technique that will catch all the frequencies available. «Therefore, the price of the devices it will not exert a significant influence» — he concluded.
Similar evaluation in dialogue with 4PDA gave Dmitry Kadomtsev, Deputy head of the laboratory of telecommunications and special equipment NPC «Kryptonite». In his opinion, the market for around the frequency is not so small, that there was a fundamental difference in the price. «In addition, adaptation of the production equipment from one band to another not-so-expensive», — says Dmitry.
And the main question — whether will be bought abroad smartphones to catch in Russia’s 5G? The frequencies are all different.
Will work or not?
Who found the birth of LTE, he remembers — not every gadget is ordered on AliExpress, took the coveted 4G. The fact that LTE operates at the scattering frequencies. They are more than two dozen, and almost every country all arranged differently. Therefore, some Chinese devices do not recognize Russian of the standard. Over time, engineers began to lay the broadest possible range — and the problem with foreign mobile phones disappeared. Will a similar scenario in the case of 5G?
It is important to understand that the current small 5G modems understand any frequency. This, for example, Samsung Exynos Modem 5100 — it catches the signal up to 6 GHz. Similar characteristics have Snapdragon X50 5G Modem and Huawei Balong 5000. But such omnivorous — most experiment.
When it comes to mass production, manufacturers can cut the range to the standard 3.3 to 3.8 GHz. At least in the first few years. After 5G modems a bunch of hassle. They eat a ton of electricity, dropping off the battery. Take a lot of space engineers have to think about how to push the chip, not eating valuable space.
In such circumstances, to pore over rare inclusion frequencies, we need a significant incentive.
Russia will not provide — we have a few potential buyers 5G smartphones. But the audience is the largest operator of China — is another matter. Tens of millions of people. For this market you can try. But again — nobody knows when China Mobile will deploy at full capacity. Why wait for the Eastern neighbours, we can. A similar opinion was expressed by Igor Guryanov, General Director of «spectrum Management».
The key issue for the strip of 4.4-4.9 GHz will become the small number of smartphone models, their inability to existing European frequency bands and, as a consequence, very low penetration of such terminals among Russian customers. Devices in the range 4.5 GHz if will develop, it is only in the interests of the operator China Mobile.
However, Dmitry Kadomtsev in conversation with 4PDA shared other reasons — he believes that in the end 5G in our country will appear. «There will be smartphones supporting bands like the 3.4-3.8 GHz, so the 4.4-4.9 GHz. They will be able to catch the signal and in Russia, and abroad. But there will be a model supporting simultaneously the frequency of a 3.4-a 3.8, plus others, in addition to the 4.4-4.9 GHz. Such devices in Russia are to take 5G or connected to a band that probably will appear».
Up until this — «someday everything will be». But when and in what form nobody knows. Perhaps operators will unite, bought equipment from Huawei. And after a couple of years we will join the 5G, paying for it with expensive mobile phones. You may have to wait for years, until the turn China Mobile, and we follow her in. One thing is clear: the transition to the 4.4-4.9 GHz though cause enormous difficulties, however, not a sentence. It’s huge, but solvable problem. Another question — was it worth it to create, then to unravel such heroic efforts?
One day, 5G in Russia will work. But with everything else, nothing is clear. The transition to exotic frequency greatly complicates things. Much depends on China, third party and financial desires of the operators.